In the middle of the countdown to the formal start of the restructuring of the Argentine debt, the Government is facing the accelerated worsening of the world economic scenario due to the effect of Coronavirus . Although the President likes to compare his current challenge with the one he had when he accompanied Néstor Kirchner it is clear that, in terms of international exchange, the global tailwind that then financed the Model K is not replicated today: rather the opposite.
This accounting Achilles Heel determines the strength of this Kirchner turn, but at the same time gives Alberto Fernández an opportunity to build an emergency consensus beyond the rift, appealing to the survival instinct of a country that tends to unite more for the fear of others than for self-love.
Black Monday of the international markets, which react terrified by a historical collapse of the oil market, impacts the future, the past and the present of Argentina according to the perspective of the analysis. Looking ahead, the horizon of the Vaca Muerta plan is clouded by the extreme volatility in which the global hydrocarbon business has just entered, a sector to which the President explicitly put chips in his recent speech in Congress. Looking back, looking for the famous “dejá-vú” that Alberto Fernández made fashionable, today’s surprising oil crisis suggests a presidency not so much like the one started by the Kirchners in 2003, but rather the one inaugurated by Héctor Cámpora in 1973, when the first world oil crisis marked a before and after in central capitalism, with its socio-political consequences in peripheral capitalism. The history of that Peronism of ’73 leaves teachings, debates and problems that are still valid today: the price and salary agreement, the delegated presidential power, the governance pact frustrated with anti-Peronism, the internal one between doves and hawks in the coalition official … Everything resonates in Argentina of the albertismo that does not start.
It is true that since before assuming, Alberto Fernández has been warning that the Macrista inheritance does not leave much room to escape a plan of blood, sweat and tears, at least for a time: the K story baptized this diagnosis as “scorched earth” . From this perspective, the devastating economic effect of the Coronavirus does nothing more than underline, at the global level, the Albertist slogan of asking patience from Argentines, in the name of a solidary ideology, which punishes as politically incorrect any corporate defense that defies presidential measures. . And in that sense, beyond the perfect storm of renegotiating Argentina’s debt in the midst of the global economic crisis, the emergency climate can add points to the complex accumulation of power that the President has to resolve. Not coincidentally, the latest surveys on his personal image give him good news, just the scarcest resource on a planet in quarantine.